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Banca Farma Factoring Publisher Banca Farma Factoring Publisher

Report on Public Finances in EMU 2016
19-12-2016


Pushed by very favourable tailwinds, the moderate economic recovery has continued this year, bringing real GDP above its pre-crisis level and leading to decreased unemployment. However, the euro area recovery has failed to accelerate: the output gap is expected to remain in the negative territory for the ninth year in a row while, contrary to all expectations, core inflation has remained below 1% for more than two years. In addition, long-term unemployment still stood at almost at 6% of the total labour force in 2015. These developments occurred despite the unprecedented series of unconventional policy measures carried out by the ECB. In a context in which there are risks of low trade growth outside the EU, which imply little support, if any, from net exports, the continuation of the expansion in the euro area relies on domestic demand. But private consumption growth is set to moderate as the boost from low oil prices is fading. Investment continues to be held back by expectations of sluggish demand. A rebalancing from external towards internal demand is needed to support monetary policy and reinvigorate growth.

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